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Healthcare Inflation Attribution Engine

Decompose cost increases into actionable root causes

Precision Diagnosis

Separate unit cost inflation from utilization changes and population shifts

Actionable Intel

Know which levers to pull—network negotiations, utilization management, or plan design

Strategic Planning

Build multi-year forecasts from proven component-level drivers

Why "12% Trend" Is Not a Strategy

Brokers and consultants deliver trend projections—"expect 12% medical, 8% pharmacy"—with zero attribution. Is the 12% from provider rate increases you can negotiate? Utilization surges you can manage? Population aging you must accept? Without decomposition, you're flying blind. Our engine separates trend into its controllable vs. structural components so you invest effort where it matters.

The Four Inflation Drivers

Unit Cost Inflation
  • • Provider contract rate increases
  • • Drug price escalation (brand, specialty)
  • • Facility fee increases
  • • Controllable via network renegotiation
Utilization Changes
  • • Service frequency per member (Rx fills, office visits)
  • • New utilization (GLP-1, gene therapy adoption)
  • • Pent-up demand releases
  • • Controllable via UM and plan design
Mix/Intensity Shifts
  • • Site-of-care migration (outpatient → inpatient)
  • • Service complexity increases
  • • Technology adoption (robotic surgery premiums)
  • • Partially controllable via steerage programs
Population/Demographics
  • • Workforce aging (higher risk scores)
  • • Chronic disease prevalence changes
  • • New hire vs. retiree mix shifts
  • • Structural—forecast and plan around it

Real-World Impact

Healthcare System (8,500 employees)

$4.7M Redirect

Broker blamed "14% medical trend" on general healthcare inflation. Attribution revealed 9.2% was unit cost (hospital contract auto-escalators), 3.1% utilization (musculoskeletal surge), 1.7% demographics. Renegotiated hospital rates (saved $3.2M), added PT network steerage (saved $1.5M). Ignored demographics (structural).

Unit Cost
9.2%
Negotiated
Utilization
3.1%
Managed
Mix Shift
0.0%
Minimal
Demographics
1.7%
Accept

Manufacturing (6,200 employees)

Avoided Waste

Consultant recommended aggressive utilization management to fight "11% trend." Attribution showed only 1.8% was utilization—rest was unit cost (7.4%) and aging workforce (1.8%). Avoided $600K in UM vendor fees that would have targeted the wrong driver. Focused on network renegotiation instead.

Precision Saves Money: Avoided misdirected spend on utilization controls when the real problem was provider pricing power